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GSC Grays - Property Estates Land

Market Apathy…..or is it just a blip?

Traditionally, when the dust has settled after the summer holidays the appetite to buy and sell returns with a renewed kick. The Autumn market is usually exciting and vibrant with the promise of a completion before the Christmas period. So, what’s happening?

Land Registry figures (released September 26th) show that there is still an increase in the number of sales compared with 2013. In January, this was a massive 52% increase in comparison and has been whittled down to an 11% increase year on year as at June this year.  After the generally more positive year that we have had to date, I would expect this rate of increase to remain if not increase slightly over the next month. On a similarly positive note, the South Durham and North Yorkshire postcodes are showing a 4.6% increase in values for 2014.

Generally, within the local market, albeit with a couple of exceptions, the market has shown more positivity than at any other time over the last 5 years. There may be some factors that identify the current state of apathy:

  1. The London Market is apparently cooling with recorded number of sales falling and this ripple effect may be undermining confidence
  2. The Bank of England has, since June, alluded to an increase in interest rates following a period of sustained low interest rates. Some take this as a signal that the worst of the emergency is over and that the economy is almost robust enough to withstand a rise in rates.  It is thought unlikely now that interest rates will rise before the General Election in 2015.
  3. The Scottish vote for independence has caused a wobble in the stock market during the earlier part of September in anticipating the economic uncertainty that would have ensued.
  4. A settled and warm period of weather in September sometimes delays the process of concentrating the mind!

Despite some reticence in what is really a mixed bag of a market, demand for property is still significantly higher than it has been. I am still optimistic that fresh stock coming to the market over the next month will attract renewed applicant interest in the run up to the year end. We are still hoping that, in the more rural areas of our market, appetite will  return to a spluttering higher end.

Chris Arundel, Director GSC Grays.

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