Autumn drilling decisions in 2026 are being shaped by a familiar but still uncomfortable combination of elevated fertiliser costs, volatile fuel prices and cautiously firmer grain markets. While the outlook appears more manageable than it did earlier this spring, this is a year where cropping decisions must be driven by margin discipline rather than habit or optimism.

Several key questions need to be considered:

1. Which crops will give a consistent profitable margin?
2. Which crops are too risky to grow?
3. Which crops can you maintain margin whilst reducing costs?
4. Which fields will give a consistent profitable margin?
5. Which fields are too risky to crop?
6. What fields can you maintain margin whilst reducing costs?

A more stable picture

There have been some welcome developments. The reduction in red diesel duty — from 10.18p/litre to 6.48p/litre — provides modest relief on machinery running costs through to the end of 2026. In practical terms, an efficient operator will use around 50 litres/acre in growing a winter crop (excluding drying), equating to a saving of just under £2/acre. While relatively small in isolation, a more significant cost saving may be achieved where fuel use can be reduced to around 40 litres/acre without compromising performance.

Output markets are also offering more support. Feed wheat for late 2026 is trading around £180–£190/t, while oilseed rape remains in the high-£400s/t (including bonuses). This represents an improvement on earlier uncertainty but must be viewed alongside a cost base that remains structurally high.

The focus should therefore be on ensuring that crop choice and field selection deliver acceptable returns this year, without compromising future profitability.  Some cropping decisions may appear financially viable in the short term but could restrict future rotation options and reduce longer-term returns.  Ensuring a consistent return year-on-year, should be part of the decision-making process.

The margin game-changer

Fertiliser is the single biggest factor shaping autumn drilling decisions.

With ammonium nitrate around £530/t and urea above £600/t, prices remain materially above pre-crisis levels. Applied at previous rates, this adds approximately £40–£50/acre to a typical cereal crop, compared with recent seasons.

The starting point must therefore be to recalculate optimal fertiliser usage based on fertiliser and crop prices for Harvest 2027. AHDB’s RB209 booklet provides useful data to help you undertake these calculations (see above).

Depending on your actual prices, the likelihood is that the nitrogen rate is going to be around 30-40 kg/ha less than the norm. Yes, it will reduce yield, but by much less than most people think, as shown in the following table from the RB209 booklet:

Better utilise organic manures

Consideration should not be limited to “bagged” fertiliser. Greater use of organic manures can improve nutrient utilisation and enhance uptake efficiency. Applying manures to growing crops, rather than spreading them on the stubble prior to sowing, can achieve significant cost savings, whilst also reducing the risk of pollution.

Build realistic gross margins

Adjusting the fertiliser approach allows more realistic gross margins to be developed across all cropping and SFI options. This provides an opportunity to review the rotation and identify where changes could improve returns.

1. Currently the most profitable crops are 1^st Wheats and Winter Oilseed Rape (WOSR). Can the rotation be altered to increase the area of these crops, especially now there are strategies in place to reduce the risk of Cabbage Stem Flea Beetle in WOSR?
2. At the same time can you minimise the area of low margin/higher risk cereal crops (2^nd Wheats, Winter Barley, Winter Oats)?
3. If you have legume fallow in the rotation is now the time to bring those fields back into production and sow a 1^st Wheat?
4. Might it be appropriate to grow pulses (beans and peas) that have no Nitrogen fertiliser requirement? It is accepted that the margins are not attractive but if they are not substantially less than 2^nd Wheats or W Barley, consider growing those as they will enable a 1^st Wheat to be sown next year.

A well thought through rotation is likely to have 60-65% of the cropped area in the higher-margin crops such as 1^st Wheat and WOSR. For the remaining 35-40%, SFI options should be considered alongside cropping. Legume fallow, for example, may well have a place instead of a low margin cereal crop. It could well produce a similar margin but provides an entry to a high margin 1^st Wheat the following year. It is evident that legume fallow that has been in place for two years improves the soil health significantly, and sowing in early September means the 1^st Wheat should have good yield potential, even on a poor field.

Take account of field variations

Crop margins also need to reflect the variations between fields across the farm. Certain fields may be too heavy for spring crops or too light for 2^nd Wheats, requiring different rotations in certain areas. The aim remains the same – to ensure a margin that is financially acceptable this year, without compromising future profitability.

For the poorest fields it may be more beneficial to utilise SFI options more frequently, with a cash crop grown perhaps one year in three. This enables a reasonable return to be achieved through the SFI option, followed by a higher-margin, lower-risk cash crop when circumstances are right to do so.

Review fuel usage across crops & fields

Fuel cost pressures have eased, but they remain a live issue. Even after duty reductions, red diesel prices are still well above long-term averages and remain exposed to volatility and potential supply disruption during peak periods.

In practical terms, cultivation-heavy systems continue to carry a higher cost burden. A poorly thought through rotation can delay establishment, increase fuel use and put additional strain on labour and machinery at critical times. Inefficient operations, whether through unnecessary passes or poor timing, can erode margins by £20–£50 per acre.

In a tight margin year, system choice can be as important as crop choice.

A practical decision framework

To navigate this season, businesses should take a structured approach:

1. Update costings using current fertiliser and fuel prices and recalculate optimal fertiliser use for each crop, including better utilisation of organic manures where available.
2. Build realistic gross margins for all crops and SFI options, ideally on a field-by-field basis.
3. Stress-test scenarios including yield reductions, cost increases and price softening.
4. Prioritise crops grown and land sown based on consistent performance.
5. Decide deliberately, drilling where margins are resilient and utilise SFI options where they are not.

The strategic view

The overall position is more stable than many had feared earlier in the year. Fuel costs have eased slightly, grain markets have strengthened, and input availability remains manageable for the time being. However, the underlying risks have not disappeared. Fertiliser prices remain elevated, input markets continue to show volatility, and margins are consequently more sensitive than in recent seasons.

Margin over momentum

Autumn drilling in 2026 is less about maximising cropped area and more about protecting margin while limiting downside risk. The most resilient businesses will be those that understand their true cost of production, align cropping decisions with field performance, and treat inputs as strategic investments rather than a fixed requirement.