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The future of combinable crops: food security implications after consecutive poor harvests

The consecutive poor harvests of 2024 and 2025 represent a critical turning point for combinable crops such as wheat, barley, and oilseed rape. While agriculture has always faced year‑to‑year variability, two poor seasons in succession have exposed deeper vulnerabilities within cropping systems. Extreme weather, long‑term soil degradation, and increasingly volatile global markets are reshaping how arable enterprises function, with significant implications on national food security and farm profitability.

2024: a damning season

The 2024 season was particularly damaging across the UK and parts of Europe. Record winter rainfall delayed drilling, compromised crop establishment, and reduced yield potential before crops even entered spring. England experienced its second‑worst harvest since 1983, with wheat production falling by more than a fifth compared with the previous year, and oilseed rape output dropping sharply due to reduced planted area and low yields.

Similar weather‑related disruption affected cereal crops across the EU, while droughts, flooding and heat stress reduced output in the Americas and Asia, contributing to a slight contraction in global cereal production.

No respite in 2025

In 2025, expectations of a strong recovery did not materialise. Some parts of the country benefited from improved conditions, but yields across our region were generally lower than the rolling average. Again, weather was the main driver with another wet autumn compromising crop establishment before an incredibly dry spring and summer significantly reduced what yield potential there was.

A number of analysts questioned whether these extreme weather events were no longer an occasional shock but a persistent feature of modern farming systems. Globally, cereal output remained relatively static, broadly matching what was utilised.

Weather volatility & food security

Weather volatility has become the dominant driver of risk for combinable crops. Warmer average temperatures are increasing the intensity of both rainfall and drought events, often within the same season. Waterlogged soils compromise crop establishment through delayed drilling, restricted root growth and impaired nutrient uptake. Drought or heat stress during grain fill reduces both yield and quality.

Research suggests that climate‑related extremes have already reduced global cereal yields by around 10% compared with a stable climate baseline, with yield variability now considered to be the greatest threat to food security.

Restoring resilience

Sitting alongside these visible weather challenges is the equally serious issue of soil degradation. Years of compaction, erosion, excessive cultivations and declining organic matter reduce a field’s ability to buffer weather extremes. Degraded soils drain poorly during wet periods and hold less moisture during drought, amplifying the impact of extreme conditions.

Improving soil structure, organic matter and biological activity are increasingly recognised as central to building resilience within combinable cropping systems and protecting long-term production capacity.

Markets, geopolitics & supply diversity

Market volatility has compounded production risks. Geopolitical disruption in key exporting regions and changing trade policies have placed significant downward pressure on grain prices in recent years. The closure of the Ensus plant on Teesside, following the US/UK trade deal that allowed significant quantities of bioethanol into the UK tariff free, resulted in local grain prices falling by around £10/t.

Lower domestic production in 2024 also increased the UK’s reliance on imports, increasing exposure to currency movements and global logistics constraints. Food security is therefore becoming as much about resilience and supply diversity as absolute production volumes.

In addition, the impact of the Iran war has had an immediate effect on fuel costs, with an expected knock-on impact on fertiliser cost and availability for the coming season. If unresolved, this will significantly increase costs of production and place further pressure on profitability.

Financial impacts on farm businesses

For farmers, the financial consequences of consecutive poor harvests are significant. Falling yields, variable quality and high input costs have narrowed margins to uncomfortable levels. Many businesses are reassessing cropping strategies, reducing exposure to high‑risk, low margin crops on marginal soils and increasing interest in environmental management options, funded by the UK taxpayer, where the returns are known and in effect, guaranteed.

While yield remains the main driver, investment is increasingly shifting away from pure yield maximisation towards soil resilience, drainage, precision agriculture, and wider risk management.

Securing the future of combinable crops

The experience of the last two seasons has made clear that combinable cropping is operating within a far narrower margin for error than in the past. Weather volatility, soil condition, market exposure and rising input costs are now interacting risks, not isolated challenges. When harvests fail, the consequences extend beyond individual farm businesses to the resilience of domestic supply chains.

Looking ahead, the future of combinable crops lies in adaptation rather than abandonment. Climate‑resilient varieties, diversified rotations, and soil‑focused agronomy offer pathways to stabilise output. At a policy level, food security depends on supporting domestic production capacity while maintaining open and reliable trade. Securing food supply in the coming decades will depend less on record yields in good years, and more on maintaining a stable, adaptable arable sector that can withstand the bad ones.

Robert Sullivan - GSC Grays

Article by

Robert Sullivan
MBPR PMIAGRM
Director

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